The Industrial Prognosis toolbox is an excel-based toolbox that calculates the air emissions related to prognoses of the activity level of different industrial actors. These activity forecasts need to come from separate modelling exercises (TIMES, Gains,…).
The current toolbox couples emission factors to the respective industrial processes, taking into account historical emissions, emission limit values, technological process improvements, etc... This allows to predict future trends, risks, and opportunities of different scenarios in the industrial sector. E.g. the Paths 2050 scenario.
The toolbox forms a recent addition to our modelling portfolio and offers opportunities to quantitatively assess the impact of climate-related measures on the quality of the air we breathe. Especially in a time where governments try to get the most out of every measure they propose, it gives handles to develop effective and overarching policy.
Technical details
The tool requires input in an energy balance type format (see Eurostat Energy Balance). Output aggregation level depends on the details in the input data with a minimum disaggregation per NFR sector and LRTAP fuel.
The output is generated according to the LRTAP reporting format and can be used for direct analysis or as an input for air quality models.